Yes, NFTRH was guardedly bullish coming out of November and into the new year. But if you know anything about me, you know I am not a one-way anything. I am open to revision and in fact, I depend on the ability to revise and refine using many data points in the macro picture, a little gut instinct, and most importantly, technical and sentiment indicators.Back in early January, NFTRH went to full caution mode due to the loss of the moving averages (an early warning system) noted on this chart. But it did so in conjunction with other bearish indicators like the 20 day exponential moving average on the CBOE put/call ratio and eventually an increasingly bullish looking (bearish for markets) gold-silver ratio, among other things. The work was in progress, and indeed it did progress. Right to where we are today. This was despite the relative bullishness of some analysts that I supremely respect. TA tells you what you may not want to hear.
It was not just the broad market. NFTRH has been laying out the increasing risks in the precious metals for weeks now. NFTRH20, now available for free review here, stated back in mid February:
"The gold-silver ratio is running out of room to the downside and this, combined with the bearish EMA 20 on the CBOE Put/Call Ratio and the VIX in a large falling wedge (see chart later in the report in 'Wrap Up') says the shelf life of any broad market rally and potentially the current rally in gold miners , is limited. It also implies that if gold is going to get hit in the next round of deflationary liquidation, silver is going to get blown up [NFTRH shorted silver via ZSL].
Again, the rough draft holds that gold may top out in the coming weeks amid much gold bug eurphoria, long term treasuries will turn back up (rates down), the VIX will break the wedge to the upside, stock markets will make new, and significant, lows and gold miners will make a significantly higher low, perhaps in the 250-275 range on HUI."
NFTRH strives to make sense of things in an ongoing manner, not to reinforce its perceptions or viewpoint. In other words, I am not afraid to be wrong. Any market stance will eventually be wrong. What I am afraid of is to have my subscribers on the wrong side of the markets at any given time.
