"As a technician, I feel that there are few analysts that offer value for me, but you do. Your work on Gold ratios has helped my analysis greatly." --Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT (The Daily Gold) 4.9.10

Thursday, April 16, 2009

'Another screaming copper has topped signal'

Otto and I have had a friendly back and forth on copper over the last few weeks. Otto, the base metals fundamentals guy says copper is bearish, there is no reason for the rise. Me, who is technical and sentiment oriented says 'yeh but, it's a technical sentiment thing... SMA 200 is a magnet'.

Well, my parameters have been met and I am neutral now and certainly not buying the base metals story. The trade, regardless of how much higher it may go in the short term, is over for me. You can read Otto's post on the subject of Ambrose Evans-Pritchard unwittingly calling a top in copper with what I found to be a hilarious article after it was emailed to me by a friend just this morning. Leave it to Otto, nothing gets by the dood.

Adding a weekly chart of copper. I have shown the daily with our target around 2.05 previously. Usually unwitting top callers have a grace period before their status as contrary indicator shines through. This chart, dialing out to a bigger picture, shows where that period may end. Bear in mind that all this noise is just part of the Hope '09 festivities.